If you've been following the San Francisco real estate market, you've probably heard two very different stories.

One says San Francisco is still an extremely competitive seller's market. Another says the condo market is struggling and buyers finally have room to negotiate.

The truth is more nuanced.

San Francisco isn't one real estate market. It's several different markets divided by property type, neighborhood, inventory, and price point.

After reviewing all 10 San Francisco MLS district reports for July 2026, five districts stand out as the places where condo buyers currently have the most potential negotiating leverage.

And there's one particularly interesting district where buyers may even find leverage on single-family homes.

Here's what the data shows.

The San Francisco Condo Market Has Split in Two

The citywide numbers can be misleading.

San Francisco condos are receiving an average of 106.3% of list price year-to-date, with 54.5% selling over asking. There have been 1,731 condo sales and 409 active listings, with a median price of $1.275 million.

At first glance, that doesn't sound like a buyer-friendly market.

But look closer.

Not a single one of San Francisco's 10 districts is actually sitting at the citywide 106.3% figure. Five districts are at 102.3% or below, while the other five are at 109.4% or above.

There's a 7.1-point gap between the two groups.

That means the citywide average describes a market that doesn't actually exist in any individual district.

Even more telling: 320 of the city's 409 active condo listings—78%—are concentrated in the five softer districts, even though those districts account for only 56% of condo sales this year.

That's where buyer leverage begins to appear.

The 5 San Francisco Districts With the Most Condo-Buyer Leverage

5. District 3 — Oceanview, Ingleside, Lakeside & Stonestown

District 3 has the lowest year-to-date condo percentage of list price in San Francisco at 100.7%.

Only 41.7% of condos are selling over asking.

Sounds like a buyer's dream, right?

There's one major problem.

There's only one active condo listing.

With just 12 condo sales all year, District 3 technically has the lowest percentage of list price received, but there simply isn't enough inventory for most buyers to take advantage of it.

This is an important lesson when evaluating real estate data:

The lowest percentage doesn't necessarily equal the most usable leverage.

You need inventory to negotiate.

4. District 4 — West Portal, Forest Hill & Miraloma Park

District 4 is one of the most surprising markets on the list.

In July, condos sold for just 95.3% of list price, and none of the two sales that month closed above asking. Condos were also taking an average of 112 days on market.

But here's where things get fascinating.

In that exact same district and month, single-family homes sold for 133.1% of asking, with 96% selling over list.

That's a staggering 37.8-point difference between houses and condos.

The July condo number is based on only two sales, so it shouldn't be treated as a definitive trend.

The year-to-date numbers provide a better picture:

• 101.1% of list price
• 27 condo sales
• 7 active listings
• 74 days on market

That still puts District 4 among the softer condo markets in San Francisco.

So if you're looking for a condo in West Portal or Forest Hill, you may have more negotiating room than the neighborhood's reputation would suggest.

3. District 10 — Bayview, Excelsior, Portola & Visitacion Valley

District 10 has perhaps the clearest inventory advantage for buyers.

It currently has 6.9 months of condo supply, the highest level in any San Francisco district. The next-highest district is only at 2.3 months.

Generally speaking, six months of inventory is considered a buyer's-market territory.

District 10 condos are receiving 101.6% of list price year-to-date, with 44.8% selling over asking.

There are also:

• 28 active listings
• 29 sales year-to-date
• 54 days on market
• A $709,000 median condo price

That last number is particularly important.

For buyers searching for a relatively attainable condo price point within San Francisco, the Excelsior and Portola areas can offer opportunities that are difficult to find elsewhere in the city.

2. District 8 — Russian Hill, Nob Hill, North Beach & Downtown

District 8 is another market where buyers can find meaningful leverage.

Condos are receiving 102.3% of list price year-to-date, with approximately 2.0 months of supply and 99 active listings. The median condo price is $1,124,500.

But District 8 becomes even more interesting when you look beyond condos.

It's the only San Francisco district where both condos and single-family homes currently show relatively soft conditions.

That makes District 8 particularly worth watching for buyers who want more negotiating room without giving up some of the city's most recognizable neighborhoods.

1. District 9 — Mission, Potrero Hill, Mission Bay & Dogpatch

District 9 ranks first because it combines relatively soft pricing with something the other districts don't have nearly as much of:

inventory.

Condos are receiving 102.2% of list price year-to-date, with approximately 2.3 months of supply and 185 active listings. There have also been 558 condo sales year-to-date.

That's a dramatically different shopping environment from District 3.

District 3 may have the lowest percentage of list price, but with one active listing, there's almost nothing for buyers to choose from.

District 9 gives buyers actual inventory to shop, compare, inspect, and negotiate.

Mission Bay and Dogpatch are especially interesting because new construction can create competition between existing sellers and newly built units.

That's not necessarily distress.

It's supply.

And supply is one of the most important factors that can give buyers negotiating power in San Francisco.

What About San Francisco Houses?

Here's where the story changes dramatically.

San Francisco single-family homes remain much more competitive than condos.

Citywide, houses are selling for approximately 123.3% of list price, with 83.3% selling over asking.

So is there anywhere buyers can negotiate on a house?

Yes—but there's only one district that clearly stands out.

District 8

District 8 single-family homes are receiving approximately 104.3% of list price, with only 37.5% selling over asking.

That means 62.5% sold at or below asking.

District 8 also has approximately 2.0 months of supply, compared with just 0.8 months citywide.

But there's a major catch.

The median District 8 house price is approximately $5.05 million, based on only 24 sales for the year.

In other words, the real answer isn't necessarily:

"Which neighborhood has the best house deals?"

It's:

"At what price point does buyer demand start to thin out?"

The three softest house districts—Districts 8, 7 and 6—are also among the most expensive areas in San Francisco. Above roughly $5 million, the buyer pool can become thin enough to create negotiating opportunities.

Four Things Buyers Can Negotiate

Finding a softer district is only the beginning.

The next question is: What can you actually negotiate?

1. Contingencies

In a competitive market, buyers may feel pressure to waive inspection or appraisal contingencies.

In softer districts, buyers may have more room to protect themselves.

That can be extremely valuable.

An inspection contingency and an appraisal contingency can be the difference between purchasing a property and purchasing an expensive problem.

2. Time

When listings sit for 50, 60 or 70+ days, buyers have more opportunities to take a second look.

You can bring a contractor.

Review documents.

Study the HOA.

Look at the reserve study.

And make a more informed offer rather than feeling forced to make an immediate decision.

3. Seller Credits

Here's a strategy many buyers overlook.

A seller may be more willing to offer a closing-cost credit or interest-rate buydown than reduce the public asking price.

Why?

Because the asking price is visible to everyone.

A credit isn't.

That's why one of the best questions to ask at an open house is:

"What's been on the market the longest?"

Not what's new.

What's been sitting.

A listing that's been available for 60 days may provide considerably more negotiating opportunity than a property that just hit the market.

4. Don't Assume Geography Is the Compromise

Buying in a softer market doesn't necessarily mean settling for an undesirable neighborhood.

The five districts identified in this analysis include places such as:

Russian Hill
Nob Hill
North Beach
Mission
Potrero Hill
Mission Bay
Dogpatch
West Portal
Forest Hill
Excelsior
Portola

The opportunity is not simply about finding a "cheap" neighborhood.

It's about finding the right combination of property type, inventory, price point, and seller motivation.

Why Condos and Houses Behave So Differently

There's a structural reason for the gap.

A single-family house comes with land and airspace that generally cannot be replicated.

A condo, on the other hand, exists within a building or development where additional units can potentially be created.

That difference matters enormously in neighborhoods such as Mission Bay and Dogpatch, where new construction can continue adding competing condo inventory.

A buyer may benefit from that additional supply today.

But there's an important long-term consideration:

The same supply that gives you negotiating power when you buy can become competition when you eventually sell.

That's why buyers shouldn't look only at today's discount.

They should also think about future resale competition.

Don't Let the Citywide Average Make Your Decision

The biggest takeaway from this analysis is simple:

San Francisco's citywide numbers don't tell the whole story.

The citywide condo average is 106.3% of list price, but no individual district actually sits at that number.

Five districts are at 102.3% or below.

Five are at 109.4% or above.

And 78% of active condo inventory is concentrated in the five softer districts.

If you're buying, that means your strategy should be based on the specific district and property type, not a headline about the San Francisco housing market.

If you're selling, it means you shouldn't automatically price your home based on citywide statistics—or even condo statistics if you're selling a house.

For example, District 9 houses sold at 132.1% of list in July while condos in the same district were at 103.5%.

Don't price a house using condo comps just because they're in the same neighborhood.

The Bottom Line for San Francisco Buyers

San Francisco isn't simply a buyer's market or a seller's market.

It's more complicated—and that's actually good news for buyers who know where to look.

For condos, the five districts offering the most potential leverage are:

1. District 9 — Mission, Potrero Hill, Mission Bay & Dogpatch
2. District 8 — Russian Hill, Nob Hill & North Beach
3. District 10 — Bayview, Excelsior & Portola
4. District 4 — West Portal, Forest Hill & surrounding neighborhoods
5. District 3 — Oceanview, Ingleside, Lakeside & Stonestown

But remember: the lowest percentage of list price doesn't automatically mean the best opportunity. Inventory matters just as much.

For single-family homes, District 8 is the standout, but the price point is significantly higher, with a median around $5 million.

Most importantly, don't walk into an open house and simply ask:

"What's new?"

Ask:

"What's been on the market the longest?"

That one question can reveal where the real negotiating leverage is.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in San Francisco?

Whether you're searching for a condo with negotiating room or trying to determine what your San Francisco home is actually worth, district-level data matters.

I'm David Poulsen, top San Francisco Realtor and former real estate developer. My family has lived in the San Francisco Bay Area for four generations, and I've spent more than 30 years navigating the area's real estate cycles.

If you're considering a purchase in one of these districts—or want to understand how these market conditions affect your home's value—I'd be happy to help you look at the numbers for your specific property.

Call or text: 415-735-6188
Email: David@SFHotHomes.com
Website: SFHotHomes.com

Free San Francisco Buyer's Guide: SFHotHomes.com/buyers-guide
Free Home Value Report: SFHotHomes.com/home-valuation

Data source: San Francisco MLS / San Francisco Association of REALTORS® District Local Market Updates, July 2026. Data current as of August 11, 2026.